Futures Trading
Approach
I will look to trade inflation based futures from Friday 13th September 2024.
This includes oil, RBOB, heating oil, natural gas, corn, wheat, ultra bonds and Japense Yen.
I may also trade some spreads, like the crack spread (oil and RBOB), corn and wheat and ultra bonds and Japanese Yen.
For value I will use calendars for products like corn, wheat, natural gas, oil, RBOB and heating oil.
For oil I may also use utr bonds with oil, copper and S&P500 real yields.
For ultra bond I will use the TUF and TUT spreads and Japanese Yen.
For Japanese Yen I will use the TUT spread and the difference between the Japanese 10 year bond yield and the US 10 year bond yield.
For the crack spread and corn and wheat spread I will use the spread calendars.
There are more I can use but htse will be the basic models.
For entry I will use price levels, time of day, volume, measured moves and toxic order flow.
Below are some examples of trades and at the bottom is the link to the actual trade results.
Crack Spread
When looking at the macro view (M30 charts) we can see the crack spread being quite rotational and the oil and RBOB calendars show when the two markets are not as correlated as they should be and the opportunity is to trade oil and RBOB back towards each other, to capture the value of their current seperation.
Crack Spread trade example
Corn and Wheat Spread
When looking at the macro view (M30 charts) we can see the corn and wheat spread being quite rotational and the corn and wheat calendars show when the two markets are not as correlated as they should be and the opportunity is to trade corn and wheat back towards each other, to capture the value of their current seperation.
Corn and wheat Spread trade example
Japanese Yen
When looking at the macro view (M30 charts) we can see very good opportunities to trade the Japanese Yen by looking at value lines in the difference between the Japanese 10 year bnds and the US 10 year bonds. We can also see value from the TUT spread (difference between US 2 year treasury notes and US ten year bonds).
Japanese Jen trade example
US Ultra Bond
When looking at the macro view (M30 charts) we can see very good opportunities to trade the US ultra bond by looking at value lines in the difference between the Japanese 10 year bnds and the US 10 year bonds. We can also see value from the TUT spread (difference between US 2 year treasury notes and US ten year bonds).
Ultra Bond trade example